I think the Milsurp Bubble is Leaking

[TnBuckeye]

Nothing wrong with being prepared but where I am in NJ I'm better off having plenty of guns and ammo. If the SHTF my plan is to just take what the Anti-Gun Liberals have. Plenty of them around me to keep myself, my family, and the platoon I will arm fed for years.

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Get your own food and shit. That way you don't have to kill your neighbor who are just trying to feed their family (probably with children in it) with his food. Having a gun in the end does not change the law. Are you talking about theft and murder?

Dolk

It was a joke towards Antis regarding a SHTF situation. Not everything need be so serious all the time. Does it?

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Your words ....not mine.


I know plenty of people that think just like that. If it's a joke, then fine, but you should ended the statement with something indicating that. Like .......

Yes to clarify it was a joke. I thought the platoon part gave it away.

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Knot for me. I assumed you were watching too much Walking Dead or something. Some people are like that .... and flat serious about it. Good to know that is not the case here!!! [emoji106] (notice the knot?)


This thread is about "I think the Milsurp Bubble is Leaking" and should probably stay on that topic. That's a better topic.

Dolk

I've actually never seen The Walking Dead. I understand it is very good. Maybe over the summer I will try and watch it since nothing else is on. I also have all the seasons of Breaking Bad to watch except the first one. I liked it but fell behind and never got back to watching it. I did see the first 2 seasons of Man in the High Castle which I enjoyed. I also liked 11-22-63 but it doesn't look like there will be a season 2.

Edit: Sorry posted above before your added about staying on topic.

Back on topic I am seeing M/39's starting to sit unsold. I think Classic flooded the market and only the best examples are commanding a premium while others are selling back around $400.

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My wife is a walking dead addict. I haven't been able to get into it as yet.

On the topic at hand, Gunbroker is both useful and puzzling to me. I am not thoroughly convinced it is a real pure economy at work on one hand, with the impact shills and simply 2 uninformed yet cash laden bidders can have.

But I do find it helpful in a certain context. In the past I have looked at past sales on a particular rifle, with multiple bidders, thrown out the high and low, taken the average, and deducted about 20% to try to get at a local reasonable price. So far over a small handful of transactions locally that seems about right. Your mileage may vary...

Also interesting to me is that a couple of nice looking SkY m39s, listed locally by someone I have bought from in the past, have sat for several weeks, and at price points I would have said were pretty good. My cash is going other places right now or I would have been all over 1 or both simply for collector value and enjoyment, regardless of what I think cash value would do over time.

But it makes me wonder if there is a bit of cooling going on? Probably no way to answer that definitely but it is interesting to consider.


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[Junk Yard Dog]

Nothing wrong with being prepared but where I am in NJ I'm better off having plenty of guns and ammo. If the SHTF my plan is to just take what the Anti-Gun Liberals have. Plenty of them around me to keep myself, my family, and the platoon I will arm fed for years.

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Good way to get killed, you wouldn't know by seeing me or were I live what I have. If you took me for a "lib" easy pickings to take you would shortly be dead.

[Darryl]

But it makes me wonder if there is a bit of cooling going on? Probably no way to answer that definitely but it is interesting to consider.


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Probably no answer to all of this. Could be the prices are falling a bit because of the change in the Administration. I know AR and AK's were going for over $1000 there for a while. Now they are down below $700 (and less) (new). Too many things that can change the prices. Too many to point your finger at right now. But one thing is for certain,........ The prices will go up over the long haul. They always do.

Hold on to your ass', it is going to be a bumpy ride!!!

[Greasemonkey]

I don't know if the bubble is leaking or people have just blown their tax returns, and now are biding their time. After all it is summer, vacations eat up some major funds, kids home for summer eat up major funds, fear of costs associated with back-to-school, college tuitions, having to have the latest zero turn mower and other summer activities. Also, people are outside, partying, getting sloshed, swimming, camping, fishing and not sitting in front of a gun auction site playing let's get stupid with dollars like they do when the north winds blow snow around. I would almost guess it's a seasonal down turn in purchases, wait till old man winter returns.

I know SKSs are now and routinely sell for the same or for more than some Aks. This is just what I've seen in pricing trends on SKSs, and these trends have been holding pretty solid. Especially the more rare variants as of late, the Albanian just a few years ago was bouncing in the 5-600 range, now 7-8, even 900+has become the norm.

The East German and North Koreans used to bounce in the 2250-3000 range, lately they have routinely been in excess of 4 to 4500 or so, and some have brought more.

The Chinese SKS commercial variants, the SKS-M and SKS-30(SKS-D) are now well in the 700-800 dollar and sometimes more, same with most of the other high cap SKS variants, the Type 84 and the SKS-NR. This is Arsenal Ak/upper end Ak price territory for a commercial SKS. At a LGS, I have seen a Chinese MAK-90 sell for a 100 dollars less than a Chinese high cap SKS.

Like any weapons...you can have a high dollar auction or a mundane lowballed one for the same exact thing..

[Rowdy1]

You just need to do your research if you're looking for a specific gun. I have seen prices all over the place for the same gun. I'm talking apples to apples. Matching, year, condition, etc. SOG has good pricing. I found another site Collectors Firearms. They're in Houston and I should have an all matching Arisaka type 44 delivered tomorrow. I have found some good deals on Gunbroker but you need to be real careful on that sight. Also, if you live in the greater Phoenix area there is a gun store Bear Arms in Scottsdale that has a nice little C&R section. They always have Mosins in stock.I recently picked up an Enfield 1917 made by Winchester and an Arisaka type 38 carbine.

[capt14k]

You just need to do your research if you're looking for a specific gun. I have seen prices all over the place for the same gun. I'm talking apples to apples. Matching, year, condition, etc. SOG has good pricing. I found another site Collectors Firearms. They're in Houston and I should have an all matching Arisaka type 44 delivered tomorrow. I have found some good deals on Gunbroker but you need to be real careful on that sight. Also, if you live in the greater Phoenix area there is a gun store Bear Arms in Scottsdale that has a nice little C&R section. They always have Mosins in stock.I recently picked up an Enfield 1917 made by Winchester and an Arisaka type 38 carbine.

You found a good deal on Collector's Firearms? They have nice stuff but like Simpson's they usually aren't cheap?

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[Joekopec1]

I bet rifles that will be in the new call of duty will drive up prices it's been awhile since they did a ww2 based game. I'm expecting it will bring plenty of newbies willing to pay anything for something in a game

[capt14k]

I bet rifles that will be in the new call of duty will drive up prices it's been awhile since they did a ww2 based game. I'm expecting it will bring plenty of newbies willing to pay anything for something in a game [emoji38]

You maybe right, but does Call of Duty carry the same weight it once did?

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[Junk Yard Dog]

Shure kid, that indeed is the rifle from your little game, the real deal, a genuine Soviet 1943 M91/30 made at Izhe...$4000? Yea, shure, I guess I can do you a favor just this once and let you have it for that price

[capt14k]

I'd like to thank TNBuckeye for letting me know where to find the 1943 M/39 Sky. Just so happened I knew the seller. Picked up this all original and all matching beauty. With 43 stock cartouche, civil guard district, and flame hand guard.



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[TnBuckeye]

I'd like to thank TNBuckeye for letting me know where to find the 1943 M/39 Sky. Just so happened I knew the seller. Picked up this all original and all matching beauty. With 43 stock cartouche, civil guard district, and flame hand guard.



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Glad it is finding a good new home, even if it isn't MY home! Let me know how it performs!


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[capt14k]

OLD Thread ALert!!!!!!!!

Yup Milsurp Bubble has burst.

There are 91/30 Laminate Refurbs with all accessories sitting unsold for weeks at $200 shipped.

I couldn't sell a real nice all matching M/28-30 for $550. Even offered it locally for $500. I gave up trying. 9 months ago it would have went $750 easy. I sold a M/28-30 covered in dried cosmoline for $650 in minutes with seconds and thirds 9 months ago.

These ones below made it official. Some of the same sellers were getting crazy money 6 months ago.

Matching Type 38 with Mum $300

http://www.gunbroker.com/item/700545037

K98k 1940 337 Matching and Original under $900

http://www.gunbroker.com/item/703363488

Matching 1891 Argentine $235

http://www.gunbroker.com/item/700528346

American items are still getting good money. Especially the knives and bayonets.

I have a feeling more and more Milsurps are going to be coming to market as more older collectors cash out. This will only put more pressure on prices. Yes more aren't coming in but there are plenty already here.

[Junk Yard Dog]

If investment value is what you are looking for then know this is the long game when talking about milsurps. Prices go up and down, sometimes it's because there is a glut of one type of item or another, new importations, political considerations, even the latest big movie to showcase a specific weapon can change the market. Enemy at the Gates did that for the PU sniper, that Pacific war movie Clint Eastwood produced did it for the Arisaka. Blips and bubbles, but in the end the value is there, just ignore the frenzy of the moment.

[Darryl]

OLD Thread ALert!!!!!!!!

If investment value is what you are looking for then know this is the long game when talking about milsurps. Prices go up and down, sometimes it's because there is a glut of one type of item or another, new importations, political considerations, even the latest big movie to showcase a specific weapon can change the market. Enemy at the Gates did that for the PU sniper, that Pacific war movie Clint Eastwood produced did it for the Arisaka. Blips and bubbles, but in the end the value is there, just ignore the frenzy of the moment.

EXACTLY I don't know about you JYD, but I don't have a single firearm that is worth less then what I paid for them. Most double and triple or even more. It's like a long term investment.

Dolk

[Junk Yard Dog]

Every firearm, including ones I overpaid at the time for, or bought within the last year is worth more than I paid. Most would sell for many times what I paid. Ammo also, and bayonets. Even the parts guns and commercial stuff, rusty relics.

[steelbuttplate]

If it is, good. It's prime time to buy more. I watched a '45 M-44 sell for less than I paid per rifle for a dozen Molots 5 yrs. ago. I got outbid but, I'm in no hurry to sell any of mine. There will be no more Finn's imported, and I don't see Russian sanctions being lifted any time soon. Nothing has burst, it's just a good time for collectors. Go look at any hospital, new collectors are being born every day.

[capt14k]

If it is, good. It's prime time to buy more. I watched a '45 M-44 sell for less than I paid per rifle for a dozen Molots 5 yrs. ago. I got outbid but, I'm in no hurry to sell any of mine. There will be no more Finn's imported, and I don't see Russian sanctions being lifted any time soon. Nothing has burst, it's just a good time for collectors. Go look at any hospital, new collectors are being born every day.

Yes it is a good time to buy. It is also why I never chased items or overpaid. I don't collect firearms as an investment but I always buy to be able to break even if I had to sell. I haven't lost money yet on any I have purchased and sold. However I have seen plenty of bad advice given about overpaying because it will continue to increase in price. Nothing goes straight up.

There are plenty of firearms already here. No more need to be brought in to satisfy current demand. Prices will continue to drop from here as more come to market. Those $300+ 91/30 everyone thought were going up are back below $200. Guy still hasn't sold them at $200 shipped with accessories. I have bought enough recently that I am going to wait for a bottom and only buy great deals.

The newer rifles are in more in the tank. Just bought a NJ Legal 6.5 Grendel AR-15 with forward assist, dust cover, free float barrel, full top rail, muzzlebrake, 2 mags, and 200+ rounds for $500. Seller had $1,500 into just the rifle and only 40 rounds through it. He is moving to free America and didn't want anything that reminded him of the PRNJ. I couldn't pass up that deal.

[capt14k]

Every firearm, including ones I overpaid at the time for, or bought within the last year is worth more than I paid. Most would sell for many times what I paid. Ammo also, and bayonets. Even the parts guns and commercial stuff, rusty relics.

Because you buy smart. You let deals come to you. Many new collectors were on gunbroker chasing a common M/39 to $800 and a B Barrel to $1,200.

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[TnBuckeye]

Every firearm, including ones I overpaid at the time for, or bought within the last year is worth more than I paid. Most would sell for many times what I paid. Ammo also, and bayonets. Even the parts guns and commercial stuff, rusty relics.

Because you buy smart. You let deals come to you. Many new collectors were on gunbroker chasing a common M/39 to $800 and a B Barrel to $1,200.

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This is the key I think, buying smart. I think some or a lot of the frenzy earlier this year might also have simply been due to ignorance, maybe even laziness or stupidity! And I put myself into that description for sure. Live and learn. I mean, typical M39s are nice, but they aren’t $800+ nice if you know what I mean! I also think seasonality comes into play somewhat. Seems like stuff costs more right after tax returns, a little less around Christmas?

As a newer collector I think it simply takes time, effort, research and experience to get to the point where you recognize what is NOT a very good deal. Those that are screaming great deals usually are pretty easy for even us new folks to realize.

I am not all the way there yet but I am further along than I was a year ago. Thanks in large part to this forum.


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[capt14k]

Seasonality does play a role. Tax return time things are at the peak. Starts in March. That peak carries into summer. August things slow down. Mid September to Thanksgiving they pick up again. Thanksgiving to February they slow again. Prices however are relatively stable. Items listing and selling changes. Last year in September prices were increasing. Then Thanksgiving they stabilized. Come March they took off and continued to rise til about June. Since then prices have fallen and the last month they went off a cliff.

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