long term future of 54r

[intechnicolor]

I've heard conflicting things about this. Was wondering what the brain trust thought.

a) executive ban on imports, game over

b) still tons of 54r surplus, this will go on for ever, prices will come down as frenzy dies by fall.

c) dwindling supplies, aside from recent frenzy, prices to increase at steady pace.


since i'm not a dealer and can only guess from bits and pieces that i have read, CAI who appears to be THE importer, is predicting a not so rosey future.

Would love to get your guys thoughts, especially from u guys who are dealers.

[hoshow]

The price of this ammo has remained remarkably steady throughout this recent craziness. I just ordered another crate from Dan's ammo yesterday and only paid $5 more than I did in december . Some places are charging ridiculous prices for it, but just avoid those places. I would be very surprised if we see any noticable price drop since we haven't seen a noticable increase (just harder to find in stock).

As for when this ammo will dry up. Eventually it will run dry but I don't think anyone knows when because no one knnows how much of this was ever produced or how much has been bought up already. Hopefully when the well finally runs dry we will all have JYD sized stashes

[rideandslidejim]

Are you talking about ammo ??? Except for the increase in price i don't think there is going to be a major shortage soon. May get in trobule here , but i don't fear the O'Bama threat as much as others here, A few good sources out there if you are looking .

Jim

[bocephus]

Even Feinstein doesn't talk about an ammo ban, politicians don't, only people on message boards.

Surplus ammo is a finite resource.

[rideandslidejim]

?????????????????????

[rideandslidejim]

I dought if iwill ever use the amount of ammo i have , but i have it, and a big back yard .


Jim

[Three_Dogs]

Unless ammo gets taxed to death or outright banned, I don't think 54r ammo is going to dry up anytime soon. If I were a guessing man I would say most likely in 50 yrs this ammo will still be manufactured.

[mogunner]

Considering that some military and militias still use the Mosin as their issue rifles, and the fact that there is considerable demand, I don't see the ammo itself going out of production. At most you may see an end to older surplus as the supply eventually runs out, but new, more expensive production will continue as long as the ammo companies can make money on it, that's just the nature of business.

[Gsragtop]

It's simple supply and demand, right now we can get cheap surplus ammo.. The demand for new commercial ammo is therefore artificially low.. Now if/when the surplus ammo supply dies up, then the demand for commercial ammo will go up, driving more supply and probably lower prices.. So I think we are all safe, and we should always have ammunition to shoot.. A few spare cases would not hurt though, lol..

[rideandslidejim]

10-4 to that !!

Jim

[breckenridge]

In the near term you might see a dwindling supply, especially in the new production stuff, as the market craziness eventually catches up with the less popular calibers which have stayed on shelves longer . I don't think there is any more long term risk than any other caliber, but thats a separate discussion.

[desertgunner]

There are rumors on one or two websites about the Russians banning the export of yellow tips as sniper ammo. Modern production, however, runs on 174 gr and/or 180gr, even 200gr is available ; so that rumor seems to be a dud and only a way to clean up the warehouse.
As to the LPS 147148gr, I have shot 1982 surplus as the youngest and 1952 as the oldest, with 1962, 1966, 1972 in between.

Thinking the Russian way, it seems plausible that they still produce 54r and x39 and stash them for later sale, just to keep the production lines at 100%, when normal demand fluctuates. I bet our kids and grand-kids will shoot our Mosins with surplus long after we , the grumpy old men, are long gone.

As to the rifles/refurbed 9130s, the Russians may get tired of arming our country with cheap rifles. MOLOT seems to be a trial version of marketing the 9130s at a more acceptable profit. At a total production of 17 Million, I would estimate we have about a million here in the US. I have seen CAI import serial numbers over the 320,000, another importer with 66,000 and what about the imports before the rifles had to be numbered. Add it up, 5 shots per rifle per month only, and you can run one production line for 54r only. No fear here, but the rifle supply might dry up sooner than we think, after the Russians did the last "Clean up House" that was reported in the media. So now people buy them as investment, not for collecting purposes only, imitating what a lot of folks here have done for years already.
However, who knows how many bunkers in the Taiga are still unopened? Only the guys in Russia and in the Ukraine know. ...and they don't tell !
And I repeat my words: Nothing done in the USSR and in today's Russia and the Satellite Nations was done without a plan and purpose. The results remain to be seen.

[intechnicolor]

Are you talking about ammo ??? Except for the increase in price i don't think there is going to be a major shortage soon. May get in trobule here , but i don't fear the O'Bama threat as much as others here, A few good sources out there if you are looking .

Jim

To clarify, i was talking about 54r surplus ammo, sorry for not being more specific

[Capybara]

Aren't there still current Russian arms that shoot 54r? I think I read that they still have some current issue MGs that do?

[tjtM38]

Aren't there still current Russian arms that shoot 54r? I think I read that they still have some current issue MGs that do?

Yes. It is still used in their light machine guns and sniper rifles. Don't see it going away for another few decades.

[Longcolt44]

" As to the rifles/refurbed 9130s, the Russians may get tired of arming our country with cheap rifles. MOLOT seems to be a trial version of marketing the 9130s at a more acceptable profit. "

The Russians will never tire of making money off the West or any other country for that matter. Rumors from suppliers of, "These are the last ones", have been going on for years. We should be worrying about what is going on today more than tomorrow.

[WeldonHunter]

One clue to look for is the year of production available. Currently we're seeing mostly 70s-80s production surplus with some older trickling in. They tend to sell off the older stuff first. The fact that 7.62x54R is still in production, has been continously and is still issued to the Russian military it should be available for a while. They mostly use it in the Draganov sniper rifles and PKM machine guns. That in itself isn't a reason for huge production due to Russia not being involved in many conflicts recently but they do supply these and other firearms that use it to quite a few countries that are, including a lot of middle eastern countries that are using a lot of it. After all they have to have something to shoot in the air to celebrate a goat farting.

[joe7170]

Yeah, no crap our ammo and gun purchases keep not only Russia, but small countries like Bulgaria, Ukraine, Belarus, ect. afloat

[zeebill]

I figure it this way, I am 68 and I got a life time supply and I am sorry you younguns after I die I could really give a darn! Bill

[joe7170]

I figure it this way, I am 68 and I got a life time supply and I am sorry you younguns after I die I could really give a darn! Bill

ol' Bill, always telling it like it is